The presidential race has shifted significantly with the results of Super Tuesday and the subsequent primaries, including yesterday's "Chesapeake" primaries, in ways that have important implications for US energy and environmental policy. Prior to Super Tuesday, it still looked possible that someone would win a major-party nomination without a strong commitment to addressing climate change. That prospect now seems very remote, and the impending alignment of a stronger federal focus on climate change with a greater emphasis from Corporate America suggests big changes ahead for how we produce and consume energy. The 2007 Energy Bill, with its mandates for biofuels and efficiency, was only a foretaste of what is likely to come.
One of the primary tools I use in my consulting practice is scenario planning, a process that assesses possible future outcomes for a specific question or issue by winnowing a broad range of uncertainties down to a few critical drivers of change. Periodically, this process also identifies fundamental forces that, upon examination, prove not to be very uncertain at all, making them quite powerful in shaping the future. A US Presidency that puts a high priority on addressing climate change aggressively now looks like such a pre-determined element.
Consider the positions of the two leading Democrats, Senator Clinton and Senator Obama, and the two leading Republicans, Governor Huckabee and Senator McCain. All four are on the record supporting a cap & trade system for reducing greenhouse gas emissions, with Senator McCain having co-authored the earlier legislation from which the pending Warner-Lieberman Cap and Trade Bill evolved. Their campaign websites, particularly those of Senators Clinton and Obama, are replete with proposals for improving energy efficiency and promoting renewable energy. Even though the Democratic Party's incredibly convoluted process for awarding delegates makes it extremely difficult to guess the outcome of the party's convention in Denver in August, and despite the slim possibility that someone other than Senator McCain could capture the Republican nomination in the Twin Cities in early September, the Intrade prediction market currently assesses the chances of someone other than the four candidates above becoming the next President at less than 2%.
Yesterday, at the annual energy industry conference hosted by Cambridge Energy Research Associates, a sister company of my sponsor John S. Herold, Inc., the CEO of ConocoPhillips expressed concern about a loss of US influence in the world, if we continue to "oppose action on climate change." I don't think he needs to worry. The leaders of the countries committed to combating global warming can read the tea leaves as well as Intrade's speculators; they see change coming, as we all should.
A dramatically different US stance on climate change in 2009 is now a virtual certainty. That means its consequences are, too: Sooner or later, we'll be paying even higher prices for fuel and electricity; efficient light bulbs and appliances will no longer be optional; and cars will generally become smaller, lighter, and more complex--and hence more expensive, at least in the short-to-medium term. I wonder if we're as ready for the reality of all that as many seem to be for the abstraction of tougher climate policies. We have about a year in which to prepare ourselves.
Showing posts with label huckabee. Show all posts
Showing posts with label huckabee. Show all posts
Wednesday, February 13, 2008
Friday, January 18, 2008
Candidates & Energy: McCain
As I continue to evaluate the positions of the presidential candidates on energy and the environment, I'm finding the process quite different than in past elections. Access to video resources on the web, and in particular on Youtube.com, makes it much easier to get a feel for the candidates that goes beyond their published positions and televised speeches. That's as true of a veteran campaigner like Senator John McCain (R-AZ) as for relative newcomers such as Messrs. Obama and Huckabee. Since I'm tackling them more or less in the order in which they won primaries, and alternating between the parties, it's now Senator McCain's turn. Like many other candidates, he favors strong measures to increase our energy independence, but his focus on climate change as an organizing principle for energy policy, rather than just another issue, differentiates him from the entire Republican field.
It's a good thing that Youtube and Google convey ample information on Senator McCain's views about energy and the environment, because his campaign website is a bit sparse on both topics, particularly compared to the level of detail provided by Senator Obama. From his comments in various speeches, town halls, and small events, it's clear that he is very concerned about our dependence on foreign oil, on both economic and national security grounds. He emphasizes the instability or governmental hostility of many of the countries from which our imports flow, frequently citing Nigeria, Venezuela and Russia as examples. I wasn't surprised to see him make the "funding both sides of the War on Terror" argument in the principal energy policy document on his website. National security is Senator McCain's strong suit, and he places energy squarely within this context.
The measures he proposes for improving energy security cover the same themes as many other candidates, including wind and solar power, higher fuel economy standards, electrification of transportation via plug-in hybrids and batteries, and biofuels. He also strongly supports nuclear power, based on its low greenhouse gas emissions. Surprisingly, given the intensity of his views on energy independence--which seem to include an unrealistic expectation of how soon it could be achieved--he would leave offshore drilling to the discretion of the nearest affected states, and he opposes drilling in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge. I think he is missing a bet, there, but it's consistent with the theme of environmental stewardship that runs through the whole McCain campaign.
Climate change is a major element of that theme, and of the Senator's legislative agenda. He has criticized the Bush administration's approach to global warming, and together with Senator Joe Lieberman (I-CT) he sponsored a greenhouse gas cap-and-trade bill that was the precursor of the Warner-Lieberman bill currently under consideration in the Senate. It's not hard to find video clips of the Senator talking about climate change and the inter-generational responsibility he feels in this regard. (I look forward to reviewing Governor Romney's position on this issue, since the Romney campaign has labeled Senator McCain's approach to climate change as "radical" and "wrong-headed.")
Ethanol is one aspect of energy policy on which McCain differs with many of his rivals. You have to admire someone who campaigns seriously in Iowa on a platform of ending subsidies for corn ethanol, and in Michigan on higher fuel economy standards. Still, when confronted with the charge that he has "flip-flopped" on this issue--that he was entirely against ethanol previously but now only opposes subsidies for it--his response was somewhat less convincing than it might have been. In any case, his aversion to subsidies is apparently not confined to ethanol, extending beyond energy to agricultural commodities, consistent with his overall emphasis on free markets and fiscal conservatism. He expects alternative energy to advance on a "level playing field"--leveled further by monetizing the climate externality via market-based mechanisms.
For someone whose candidacy was written off not long ago, Senator McCain appears to have as good a chance of capturing his party's nomination in this wide-open contest as any of his competitors. With former Senator Thompson, he also represents the last shot at the White House for his generation, which experienced World War II as children and came of age in the 1950s, but has yet to produce a President. Although he occupies the Senate seat formerly held by Barry Goldwater, John McCain's ideas on energy and the environment are up-to-date and would not be out of place among this year's Democratic candidates--with the possible exception of his unwavering support for nuclear power. His proposals reflect both change and experience. My long-time readers would be forgiven for noting a high degree of overlap between many of Senator McCain's positions on energy security and climate change and the themes that I've been writing about here for four years. That shouldn't be construed as an endorsement, however.
It's a good thing that Youtube and Google convey ample information on Senator McCain's views about energy and the environment, because his campaign website is a bit sparse on both topics, particularly compared to the level of detail provided by Senator Obama. From his comments in various speeches, town halls, and small events, it's clear that he is very concerned about our dependence on foreign oil, on both economic and national security grounds. He emphasizes the instability or governmental hostility of many of the countries from which our imports flow, frequently citing Nigeria, Venezuela and Russia as examples. I wasn't surprised to see him make the "funding both sides of the War on Terror" argument in the principal energy policy document on his website. National security is Senator McCain's strong suit, and he places energy squarely within this context.
The measures he proposes for improving energy security cover the same themes as many other candidates, including wind and solar power, higher fuel economy standards, electrification of transportation via plug-in hybrids and batteries, and biofuels. He also strongly supports nuclear power, based on its low greenhouse gas emissions. Surprisingly, given the intensity of his views on energy independence--which seem to include an unrealistic expectation of how soon it could be achieved--he would leave offshore drilling to the discretion of the nearest affected states, and he opposes drilling in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge. I think he is missing a bet, there, but it's consistent with the theme of environmental stewardship that runs through the whole McCain campaign.
Climate change is a major element of that theme, and of the Senator's legislative agenda. He has criticized the Bush administration's approach to global warming, and together with Senator Joe Lieberman (I-CT) he sponsored a greenhouse gas cap-and-trade bill that was the precursor of the Warner-Lieberman bill currently under consideration in the Senate. It's not hard to find video clips of the Senator talking about climate change and the inter-generational responsibility he feels in this regard. (I look forward to reviewing Governor Romney's position on this issue, since the Romney campaign has labeled Senator McCain's approach to climate change as "radical" and "wrong-headed.")
Ethanol is one aspect of energy policy on which McCain differs with many of his rivals. You have to admire someone who campaigns seriously in Iowa on a platform of ending subsidies for corn ethanol, and in Michigan on higher fuel economy standards. Still, when confronted with the charge that he has "flip-flopped" on this issue--that he was entirely against ethanol previously but now only opposes subsidies for it--his response was somewhat less convincing than it might have been. In any case, his aversion to subsidies is apparently not confined to ethanol, extending beyond energy to agricultural commodities, consistent with his overall emphasis on free markets and fiscal conservatism. He expects alternative energy to advance on a "level playing field"--leveled further by monetizing the climate externality via market-based mechanisms.
For someone whose candidacy was written off not long ago, Senator McCain appears to have as good a chance of capturing his party's nomination in this wide-open contest as any of his competitors. With former Senator Thompson, he also represents the last shot at the White House for his generation, which experienced World War II as children and came of age in the 1950s, but has yet to produce a President. Although he occupies the Senate seat formerly held by Barry Goldwater, John McCain's ideas on energy and the environment are up-to-date and would not be out of place among this year's Democratic candidates--with the possible exception of his unwavering support for nuclear power. His proposals reflect both change and experience. My long-time readers would be forgiven for noting a high degree of overlap between many of Senator McCain's positions on energy security and climate change and the themes that I've been writing about here for four years. That shouldn't be construed as an endorsement, however.
Wednesday, January 09, 2008
Candidates & Energy: Huckabee
With the Iowa Caucuses and the New Hampshire Primary behind us, and Super Duper Tuesday less than a month away, it seems timely to look at where the major presidential candidates stand on energy and energy-related environmental issues. I'd like to start with a candidate whom I would have relegated to the also-ran category prior to his impressive win in Iowa, former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee. Mr. Huckabee's positions on energy represent an interesting mix that doesn't neatly match the "conservative" label with which he is generally tagged. Some elements are refreshing, while others strike me as naively unrealistic--although not necessarily more than those of other, more prominent politicians. This isn't meant to be a comprehensive examination, nor should it be construed as any kind of endorsement.
Mr. Huckabee's official website, mikehuckabee.com, identifies energy independence as a key issue for his campaign. It proclaims, "We will achieve energy independence by the end of my second term," and lays out a broad agenda that includes conservation, technology, oil exploration, biofuels, renewable electricity, clean coal and nuclear power. It alludes to a "comprehensive plan for energy independence," although it is not clear whether this already exists or would be created early in a Huckabee administration. Without the specifics, we have only the site's rhetoric from which to surmise that the plan would rely heavily on market-based solutions and federal R&D support, rather than mandates. Among other things, he is on record supporting drilling in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge.
Governor Huckabee's approach to energy seems generally consistent with the Geo-Green movement that's been percolating for a while in policy circles. He explicitly links energy and the War on Terror, citing the widely-heard "funding both sides" argument. His suggestion that he'd like to "treat Saudi Arabia the same way I treat Sweden" will be popular with voters who see Middle East oil--of which the US actually consumes relatively little--as the root of all evil.
The obverse of the security focus in the Geo-Green framework is environmental policy, and here Mr. Huckabee stands out, along with Senator McCain, as being most aggressive among the Republican candidates on the subject of climate change, which he accepts--though he tends to sidestep the question of its anthropogenic origin. On moral grounds he supports a cap and trade approach to greenhouse gas emissions and places this in a broader context of environmental stewardship. Despite this, I could not find a direct reference to climate change on his campaign's website.
So how does all this strike me? It's hard for me to get past the choice of energy independence as a focal point for his energy policy. Even if this goal were technically possible and desirable--both points are debatable--the idea that it could be done within eight years simply isn't credible. When you consider the legislative, permitting, capital, and engineering & construction elements of such a timeline, it would be quite an accomplishment if the first wave of major facilities envisioned in such a plan--nuclear power and coal liquefaction plants, arctic oil wells--were onstream by the end of his second term in office. Perhaps it's meant metaphorically and not literally, as it seems. I've also never been very comfortable with the "beggar-thy-neighbor" tone of some of the Geo-Green arguments. I see strong synergies between energy security and climate change, but those benefits stand up quite well without being put into an adversarial, anti-Arab context.
On balance, Governor Huckabee's approach to energy fits the climate change/energy security template that has become increasingly mainstream in the last few years and that ought to appeal to independent voters and some Democrats, while emphasizing markets in ways that won't alienate Republicans. There's not a lot of depth evident, however, and if Mr. Huckabee ultimately wants to compete with Democrats who have developed extremely detailed energy proposals, his staff has a lot of work ahead of them.
Mr. Huckabee's official website, mikehuckabee.com, identifies energy independence as a key issue for his campaign. It proclaims, "We will achieve energy independence by the end of my second term," and lays out a broad agenda that includes conservation, technology, oil exploration, biofuels, renewable electricity, clean coal and nuclear power. It alludes to a "comprehensive plan for energy independence," although it is not clear whether this already exists or would be created early in a Huckabee administration. Without the specifics, we have only the site's rhetoric from which to surmise that the plan would rely heavily on market-based solutions and federal R&D support, rather than mandates. Among other things, he is on record supporting drilling in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge.
Governor Huckabee's approach to energy seems generally consistent with the Geo-Green movement that's been percolating for a while in policy circles. He explicitly links energy and the War on Terror, citing the widely-heard "funding both sides" argument. His suggestion that he'd like to "treat Saudi Arabia the same way I treat Sweden" will be popular with voters who see Middle East oil--of which the US actually consumes relatively little--as the root of all evil.
The obverse of the security focus in the Geo-Green framework is environmental policy, and here Mr. Huckabee stands out, along with Senator McCain, as being most aggressive among the Republican candidates on the subject of climate change, which he accepts--though he tends to sidestep the question of its anthropogenic origin. On moral grounds he supports a cap and trade approach to greenhouse gas emissions and places this in a broader context of environmental stewardship. Despite this, I could not find a direct reference to climate change on his campaign's website.
So how does all this strike me? It's hard for me to get past the choice of energy independence as a focal point for his energy policy. Even if this goal were technically possible and desirable--both points are debatable--the idea that it could be done within eight years simply isn't credible. When you consider the legislative, permitting, capital, and engineering & construction elements of such a timeline, it would be quite an accomplishment if the first wave of major facilities envisioned in such a plan--nuclear power and coal liquefaction plants, arctic oil wells--were onstream by the end of his second term in office. Perhaps it's meant metaphorically and not literally, as it seems. I've also never been very comfortable with the "beggar-thy-neighbor" tone of some of the Geo-Green arguments. I see strong synergies between energy security and climate change, but those benefits stand up quite well without being put into an adversarial, anti-Arab context.
On balance, Governor Huckabee's approach to energy fits the climate change/energy security template that has become increasingly mainstream in the last few years and that ought to appeal to independent voters and some Democrats, while emphasizing markets in ways that won't alienate Republicans. There's not a lot of depth evident, however, and if Mr. Huckabee ultimately wants to compete with Democrats who have developed extremely detailed energy proposals, his staff has a lot of work ahead of them.
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