tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6199410.post7026624477883298687..comments2023-12-27T08:02:59.927-05:00Comments on Energy Outlook: ...and Two Steps Back for CleantechGeoffrey Styleshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/18047970229068397492noreply@blogger.comBlogger2125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6199410.post-77511162268661057812013-06-04T09:07:16.817-04:002013-06-04T09:07:16.817-04:00Ed,
That's very true, though I think it applie...Ed,<br />That's very true, though I think it applies a lot more to Better Place than to Desertec. The European solar market is almost entirely the result of EU and national policies; absent those, there wouldn't be a European solar market to speak of. So it's not a question of market readiness, but of the conscious choices of policy makers and bureaucrats. <br /><br />Germany has installed around 33 GW of PV in the last decade, in a place with an average capacity factor of around 11%. Their neighbors have a few more GW under similar conditions. For roughly the same cost, including the 10-year feed-in tariff commitments, they could have installed that much PV in southern Spain and North Africa, where the capacity factor is more like 25%, along with the necessary transmission upgrades, and be much farther along towards the updated grid necessary to integrate higher percentages of intermittent renewables. In the process, they would have promoted development in North Africa and contributed much less to the global PV manufacturing overhang that has crushed margins and put so many PV firms out of business or in jeopardy. That isn't hindsight so much as a plausible alternative scenario not chosen. Geoffrey Styleshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/18047970229068397492noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6199410.post-68103800748466956452013-06-04T08:20:21.833-04:002013-06-04T08:20:21.833-04:00"Don't begin vast projects with half-vast..."Don't begin vast projects with half-vast ideas."<br /><br />There is a long and expensive history of products introduced to the market when they were "not ready for prime time". The usual result is a delay of a decade or two before market introduction is attempted again; or, abandonment. Ed Reidnoreply@blogger.com